Put simply, economists at the ad giant Carat say this year’s decline has been worse than first forecast.  But after looking at how all the different media are weathering the downturn, they say radio is been "holding up better" because of its ability to drive strong reach and awareness.  For that reason, the agency says radio's share of advertising budgets is holding steady.

Even so, revenues are likely to remain less than what they were a year ago.  In March Carat predicted a 10% drop in overall ad spending.  Today they believe it will be closer to 16% saying expected incremental spending has not materialized.  Carat parent Aegis Media CEO Jerry Buhlmann says, “These significant revisions are not unexpected in the context of the recent volatility of the market.”

They’re essentially holding their 2010 outlook steady, projecting another 2.6% decline and saying a “significant recovery” is now not expected until the second half of next year at the earliest.  All major media categories are tracking below last year with newspapers in the toughest position.

Carat’s predictions may be more than theoretical.  The chief executive of one publicly-held radio group tells Inside Radio, “National has been on fire the last few weeks.”   But he believes it’s too soon to say the recovery has begun.