Analyst forecasts don’t square with what local stations are budgeting for next year.  The prognosticators foresee another down year, although not as painful as this year.  So where do radio budgets end up during the current budget season?  An informal survey by Inside Radio shows broadcasters believe the numbers will go in the opposite direction.

Despite outlooks of low-single digit revenue declines, numerous managers are budgeting for modest single-digit growth, ranging from less than 1% to as high as 10%.  Following four consecutive years of negative growth, an uptick of 3% — the most common figure cited among market managers and GMs informally polled by Inside Radio — would be cause for celebration.

“It may only be modest, single-digit growth expectations, but up is up,” says Clear Channel- New York market manager Joe Puglise.  Although radio’s largest operator has yet to formally begin the dialogue of determining cluster budgets at the local level, Puglise says he fully expects his New York stations to grow revenue next year. “Flat or down is not an option, and I would be shocked if any of our corporate folks disagreed with me.”  He’s not alone.

With its worst year ever nearly behind it, radio managers knee-deep in the budgeting process expect small revenue gains in 2010. On the low side, a Cox medium market manager says next year’s budget is up less than 1% over 2009.  “Most clusters in our company are very similar,” he says. “That’s very realistic and attainable growth.”

A medium market GM at a different company has budgeted for 3-4% revenue growth while a manager in a top five market says its cluster budgets are up 3-5%.  By budgeting flat to slightly down on expenses and up 2-3% in revenue, a top 15-market manager projects a cash flow increase of 5%. “The good news is, even though we cut a lot, we are poised to grow when things pick up.  We have retained nearly all of our key employees, we are still predominantly live and local and we are in much better shape than a lot of our competitors,” the manager says.

Entercom’s Portland, OR GM Erin Hubert is budgeting a 10% increase for the first half of 2010 and “probably a little higher” for the back half of the year. That’s in line with what Entercom CEO David Field predicted at September’s NAB Radio Show.  Hubert notes that her budgets are not final and the cluster has not yet received specifics from corporate.  Even 10% growth wouldn’t come close to 2008 and 2007 revenue levels, which Hubert sees as a better benchmark than 2009. “Otherwise, I think we’d end up under-projecting the potential growth that exists for 2010 for our industry and company, thus creating an environment where the psychology and expectations are too low for our staff.”