For the past several months, media economists and analysts have been revising their advertising forecasts, each time predicting stronger growth for radio.  But perhaps they’ve oversold how quick the pace of recovery will be.  Barclays Capital is forecasting radio revenue will grow this year by 6.8% instead of the previously-predicted 7.4%.  While just a fractional shift, it translates into tens of millions of fewer revenue dollars.

“Recent economic data has driven a more conservative consensus view,” analyst Anthony DiClemente writes in a report to clients.  He points out consumer confidence fell in July to its lowest level since February, noting the strong correlation with advertising spending. “The U.S. economic recovery has lost some of its initial momentum,” he concludes.  Despite lowering his radio forecast by 0.6%, DiClemente’s outlook remains among the most bullish for the industry.  Most prognosticators have put their forecast between 5% and 7%.  DiClemente also lowered his outlook on magazines, newspapers, outdoor and Yellow Pages while he increased the pace of growth for broadcast television, cable TV and the internet.  Because of what’s happening in the overall economy, Barclay’s lowered its overall forecast of advertising growth for 2010 by a half percentage point to 5%.   DiClemente believes the strengthening automotive business bodes well for radio and other media.  He also expects political spending to help lift the third quarter too, although most of those dollars will be funneled to local television stations.