GroupM released its Worldwide Media Forecast, “This Year, Next Year,” which predicts 3.4% advertising industry growth in 2019, or a rise of 4.6% on an underlying basis excluding U.S. political advertising. Adding in political advertising in the U.S., total global growth is predicted to increase 6%.
GroupM says globally, the U.S. is a key driver of the industry’s ongoing expansion, but so too are China, Brazil, India and the U.K. Digital advertising continues to be the largest growth medium across markets.
“While the economic foundations supporting the advertising industry are somewhat fragile at this time, growth trends are holding up for now,” Brian Wieser, GroupM Global President of Business Intelligence said in a release.
The U.S., China, Brazil, India and the U.K. collectively account for well over half of growth in 2019 and 2020, GroupM says.
Digital dominates the global advertising marketplace, capturing 50% of the world’s advertising spending in 2020, double its 25% share from 2014. However, as digital media continues to mature, GroupM predicts its share of spending will eventually plateau. As a result, growth will ultimately decelerate with each passing year to eventually converge with global averages, the firm predicts.
“If digital advertising were to continue growing at the same pace, it would be 100% of all of advertising,” Wieser told AdAge. “That’s not realistic. It’s not as if television is going to evaporate.”
Television, set to account for 30% of advertising in 2020, has lost share over time as growth has essentially flattened. Worldwide, GroupM expects the medium to fall 3% in 2019 before rising in 2020 by 1.5%. Newspapers are set to decline again in 2019 and 2020, down 9.3% and 5.8% respectively, amounting to only $38 billion in ad revenue, GroupM says. Newspapers represent 6% of the world’s total advertising, down from 34% 20 years ago.
The report did not specifically mention radio in its forecast.