SNL Kagan 375

Driven by growth in local spot, off-air and digital, radio revenues will grow 1.1% to $17.8 billion this year from $17.6 billion in 2017, according to new projections released by Kagan, part of S&P Global Market Intelligence. Following a decline in 2017, local radio revenue will inch up to $10.4 billion this year, from $10.3 billion in 2017. Digital ($1.2 billion in 2017 to $1.3 billion in 2018) and off-air ($2.4 billion to $2.5 billion) are also on track to deliver modest growth, while network revenue is expected to remain flat at $1.1 billion and national spot is on track to dip slightly to $2.5 billion from $2.6 billion.

Kagan’s latest forecast has total radio industry revenues holding steady in the non-election year of 2019, before jumping 1.2% to $18.1 billion in 2020, reaching an important psychological milestone for the radio industry. From there revenues are expected to continue to slowly climb, hitting $19.0 billion by the year 2028.

Digital and off-air will propel the industry forward during this 10-year period, while local spot revenue holds steady. From 2019-2028, Kagan forecasts radio’s digital revenue will increase from $1.3 billion in 2019 to $1.8 billion in 2028 while off-air dollars jump from $2.7 billion to $3.6 billion, accounting for a significantly larger piece of radio’s total ad mix. The forecast calls for off-air to grow from 14% of radio revenue in 2018 to 19% by 2028 while digital increases its share from 7% to 9% during the same timeframe.

The new numbers were presented at Kagan's 35th Annual TV and Radio Finance Summit June 14 in New York.